Monday, July 13, 2015

Challenging Day at Board of Elections

Multiple candidates filed petitions to run for County Executive in Ulster County.  According to the Board of Elections, all of the petitions have been challenged except those of Mike Hein.  The challenges come indirectly from the Hein campaign.

Why indirectly?  Well, most campaigns have their supporters file challenges in their own names.  This way, the candidate can smile for the camera and claim not to have been involved in the challenging.  Legally, challenging ALL of the petitions is permissible though it does give the impression of fear or concern to the public.  It remains to be seen if specific challenges will be filed.

So, who filed?

Mike Hein filed for the Democrat and Working Families line.  He has challenger for the Working Families (WFP)line.  Frederick Rasmussen III filed petitions to run for the WFP line.  Also, Hunter Downie filed petitions to run on the Green Party line.

I do not know much about either of these gentlemen, but I do know they are involved in some capacity (volunteer or otherwise) with the Catskill Mountain Railroad.

Terry Bernardo filed petitions for the Republican, Conservative, and Independence Party lines.

If all of the petitions get upheld, it creates some interesting scenarios.

First, a WFP primary.  Assuming Frederick Rasmussen III is an enrolled member of the WFP, then it will be a straight primary.  This could be problematic for Mr. Hein.  The WFP is a far left party.  Though Mike Hein has very strong support among Democrats, the same is not necessarily true among the WFP members.  Hein will be the favorite, but in a WFP primary, anything can happen.

If Mike wins the WFP primary, he will have 2 opponents: Bernardo on 3 lines and Downie on the Green Party line,  If he loses the WFP primary, add a 3rd opponent.  You can expect that Downie and Rasmussen (on Green and WFP respectively) will take far more votes from Mike Hein than Terry Bernardo.

Mike Hein is still the favorite.  He is a 2 term incumbent.  However, with the possibility of a well funded opponent with 2 other opponents drawing away left wing support, the advantage of incumbency is suddenly weakened.

Final analysis shows a possible unexpected barn burner for November.


Anonymous said...

I think this all good. Competition is always good for elected officials who feel they are invincible. Don't want them to get too comfy.... This will finally be an interesting campaign. Cannot take anything for granted. Hein has had an iron fist on anything coming out of his office. Cannot control what happens now with the voters. Let the contest begin.....

Anonymous said...

Hein will have to give up his daily golf matches at Wilywyck does he account for his time out of the office to golf

Anonymous said...

With incumbents and the establishment out of favor, If there is an offer in the private sector on the table Hein should seriously consider it. With three lines Terry Bernardo, becomes a true threat. She also has a contingent of Democrats that are anti Hein, and will vote for her as a viable alternative. The WFP is now in jeproady and the Green Party will draw some Hein votes as well. Incumbents rarely fold Lyndon Johnson being an exception, but I am but it is better to leave on top with a place to go, rather than to crawl out under the dark of defeat with no place to go.

Anonymous said...

Wiltwyck? Back when Heins was jewelry help he was a member at green acres. County ex moving on up. Btw what ever happened to the bank president gig Heins was telling everyone he was getting? Must have gone bye like his state tour to fix government. Expect any day now to hear Heins is being courted to enter the GOP White House field.

Rich you write every well and only write what you can substantiate, respect that.