Sunday, November 4, 2012

The Race for the White House -- Prediction

The race for the White House has 2 required predictions: the national vote and the Electoral College.  A week ago, the race looked over, but President Obama has had a minor surge likely due to the Hurricane and his appearances in New Jersey.

The polls have been all over the place.  The problem is the turnout model.  Many polls are using a D+7 or D+9 model.  In other words, the polls assume a greater Democratic turnout than Republican by either 7 or 9 points.  In 2008, the turnout was D+8.  I do not believe that the President will have the same turnout and enthusiasm as 2008.  I think it more likely that turnout will be even or perhaps R+1 or 2.  If the turnout is D+3 or better, President Obama likely is reelected.  Based on my presumption concerning turnout, I make the following predictions.

I believe Romney wins the national or popular vote.  I think that difference will be clear.  Romney gets 53% and Obama gets 47%, ironic in light of Romney's infamous 47% comment.

As for the Electoral College, let's look at the battleground states.

1.   Colorado goes Romney +2

2.   Florida goes Romney +5

3.   Iowa goes Romney +1  (will be called late at night)

4.   Michigan goes Obama +3  ( I know polls show this close, but I just do not buy it)

5.   Nevada goes Obama +2

6.   New Hampshire goes Romney +4

7.   North Carolina goes Romney in a blow out (+10 or +11)

8.   Ohio goes Romney +2  ( I know the polls tend to lean Obama, but based on enthusiam and recent turnout to rallies {30,000 for Romney, 2,500 for Obama), I think Romney wins the State.

9.   Pennsylvania goes Obama +1 or +2.  Polls show this State is tight.  If turnout in Philadelphia is weak, Romney could win the State.  I think Pennsylvania will disappoint Republicans yet again.

10. Virginia will be called at Romney +2, but when the military votes are counted, it will increase to +3

11. Wisconsin goes to Romney +1 or +2

12. Minnesota goes Obama +2

Based on these predictions, the Electoral College goes 295 Romney to 243 Obama.  Based on these projections, Governor Romney could lose Ohio and still get 277 and the win.

I predict the Governor Romney wins the White House with a clear and easy win in the popular vote, but a relatively close win in the Electoral College.

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