Tuesday, March 19, 2013

The Latest Political Rumblings

The Republicans are currently searching for a candidate for Comptroller against Elliott Auerbach.  Although Auerbach is very beatable, no candidates have come forward thus far.  Jim Quigley has been repeatedly approached, but seems uninterested at this time.

Now, some Democrats (likely realizing how beatable Auerbach is this year) are pressing Republicans to cross endorse the incumbent Comptroller in exchange for a Democrat endorsement of County Clerk Postupack. 

I truly hope that Republicans reject this offer and come up with a solid candidate for Comptroller.  Nina Postupack was overwhelmingly reelected County Clerk the last time out and has no clear competition.  She has been a strong County Clerk and is exceedingly popular.  With her and Family Court Judge Mizel at the top of the ballot, the Republicans could present a very solid ticket.  By adding a good candidate for Comptroller, the Republicans could start a strong wave of votes that would likely keep the Legislature Majority and maybe even pick up a seat or two.

If the Republicans fail to present a solid candidate for Comptroller and cross endorse the Democrat incumbent, any momentum from the top of the ticket evaporates.  The odds are that --under such a scenario-- the turnout would be very low and the Democrats would retake the Majority of the Legislature.

Imagine a scenario with a really strong candidate for Comptroller such as John Guerin.  The top of the ticket would be Mizel-Postupak-Guerin and be the start of great excitement for Republican voters.  In such a scenario, the Republicans win all 3 of these elections and use that momentum to keep and strengthen the Legislature Majority.  Moreover, the victorious candidate for Comptroller (in this case Guerin) would be considered the next most likely County Executive after Mike Hein. 

Time will tell if the Republicans take advantage of this opportunity or squander it with a political deal.


Rumors have started surfacing regarding Terry Bernardo and her legislative seat.  Most are untrue.  Allow me to explain.

First, the rumor that Terry Bernardo has resigned is patently false.  She continues to serve as County Legislator and Chair of the Legislature.

Second, the rumor that Troy Dunn is planning to run against Terry Bernardo is also false.  My understanding is that Mr. Dunn (a very strong candidate in his own right) is considering a run for the seat in 2015 if Terry Bernardo chooses not to run.  There is not going to be a Republican Primary between those two.

Third, no Democratic candidate has announced his or her candidacy.  The only candidate who has announced for the seat is the enrolled Republican who challenged Legislator Bernardo in the 2011 Republican Primary and the 2009 and 2011 General Elections.  Considering that Terry Bernardo won the 2011 primary with 71.8% of the vote (268-105) and the 2011 General Election with 76.4% of the vote (943-292), it is unlikely that Terry Bernardo will lose to this candidate.  {The 2009 general election is not a fair comparison of the vote as this was during the time of multi-member districts.  The count though was 3605 to 1719}


As more political rumblings start to surface, I will address them.  These are the only ones of note right now.  To be fair, it is VERY early in the political year , but I will keep my ear to the ground.


Anonymous said...

I agree, Rich. Spot on. We need to beat Elliott.

Anonymous said...

Good points.

Richard T. Cahill Jr. said...

As a note, do not send me racist or anti-semitic comments. I will not post them on this blog.

The two I just received were swiftly deleted.

Anonymous said...


Any rumors about Terry Bernardo retiring are probably because of an article on Marinescu's blog. He made up a story as another way of attacking the Bernardos.

He is so pathetic.

Richard T. Cahill Jr. said...

I heard the rumor elsewhere, but you could be correct about its original source. Nonetheless, the rumor is false.