The Latest Political Rumblings

As the 2013 election season slowly approaches, the 2 hotspots appear to be Ulster and Rochester.  Let's take a look.

In Ulster, there are real questions about the entire ticket.  Town Councilwoman Hendrick, an enrolled conservative and Town Conservative Chair, has consistently agitated the Town Supervisor and numerous members of the Republican Committee.  Now, there are real questions of a divide between the two parties.

Hendrick best be careful.  The last time there was a divide between the Republicans and Conservatives, Nick Woerner got elected.  Is that really what they want?  There are rumors he wants to return an seek his old job.  Beware those who fail to learn from history.

Now, to the hottest part of Ulster County (at least politically), the Town of Rochester.

The battle for the legislative seat currently held by Terry Bernardo now has three candidates.  Manuela Michailesku is once again seeking the seat.  Considering how badly she was defeated previously and considering how many people her husband has infuriated with his blog comments, her chances are poor.  That does not mean, however, that she will not have a substantial impact on the race.  She will, but not in the way she thinks.

A man named Dawson has stepped forward to run.  He is perceived rightly or wrongly as the candidate presented by Dave O'Halloran to go after Terry Bernardo.

Terry Bernardo has already made it clear that she is seeking election.

So, how will this go?  Well, it is clear to me that the Conservatives and the Independence Party will endorse Terry Bernardo.  There will be attempts at Opportunity to Ballot primaries, but these will fail either in court or at the ballot box.  Expect Terry Bernardo to be on the ballot in November on the Conservative and Independence Party lines.

What about the Republican line?  This is more interesting.  Considering the current make up of the Rochester Committee, expect Mr. Dawson to receive the initial endorsement.  It appears he has the votes.  Bernardo will come in second and Manuela will come in third.

There will then be a 3-way primary for the Republican line.  It is in this primary that Manuela will have the most influence.  She will not win.  In fact, she will come in a distant third.  However, the votes she will take (20% at most) will not come from the Bernardo camp.  They will come from potential Dawson voters and from the support she has on her own.  In the end, Bernardo will win the primary, but could do it with less than 50% of the vote.  Expect the vote to be 45% for Bernardo, 35% to 40% for Dawson, and the balance (15% to 20%) for Manuela.

For Dawson to win, he cannot just run against Terry and Len Bernardo.  He has to run on his own.  Unfortunately, with Manuela in the race, that will not be possible.  The anti-Bernardo venom will overwhelm the primary, doom Dawson, and likely give Terry the win.

In this district, the entire race will be pro-Bernardo versus anti-Bernardo.  Dawson and Manuela will split the anti-Bernardo vote.  Thus, Manuela could have the biggest role of all -- spoiler.  Ironically, she could be the one who guarantees Terry Bernardo another term in the Legislature.

In the weeks to come, expect vicious attacks and commentary between the Manuela camp and David O'Halloran, the one who is believed to be behind the Dawson campaign (rightly or wrongly).  Ironically, this plays right into the hands of the Bernardos who must be laughing up their sleeves more and more.

Time for Knife Control??

At least 14 people were wounded at a Texas college campus when a deranged individual went from building to building with either a knife or some other sharp implement and randomly stabbed people.

This is a terrible event and I wish nothing but good health and a speedy recovery to the victims.  I hope the person responsible is prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.

However, if we follow the liberal line of thinking to its logical conclusion, should knives and other sharp implements be banned?  Should there be national and state legislation on knife control?  Will Governor Cuomo ram through such legislation through the Assembly and Senate in the middle of the night?

Just curious.

The Latest Political Rumblings

The Republicans are currently searching for a candidate for Comptroller against Elliott Auerbach.  Although Auerbach is very beatable, no candidates have come forward thus far.  Jim Quigley has been repeatedly approached, but seems uninterested at this time.

Now, some Democrats (likely realizing how beatable Auerbach is this year) are pressing Republicans to cross endorse the incumbent Comptroller in exchange for a Democrat endorsement of County Clerk Postupack. 

I truly hope that Republicans reject this offer and come up with a solid candidate for Comptroller.  Nina Postupack was overwhelmingly reelected County Clerk the last time out and has no clear competition.  She has been a strong County Clerk and is exceedingly popular.  With her and Family Court Judge Mizel at the top of the ballot, the Republicans could present a very solid ticket.  By adding a good candidate for Comptroller, the Republicans could start a strong wave of votes that would likely keep the Legislature Majority and maybe even pick up a seat or two.

If the Republicans fail to present a solid candidate for Comptroller and cross endorse the Democrat incumbent, any momentum from the top of the ticket evaporates.  The odds are that --under such a scenario-- the turnout would be very low and the Democrats would retake the Majority of the Legislature.

Imagine a scenario with a really strong candidate for Comptroller such as John Guerin.  The top of the ticket would be Mizel-Postupak-Guerin and be the start of great excitement for Republican voters.  In such a scenario, the Republicans win all 3 of these elections and use that momentum to keep and strengthen the Legislature Majority.  Moreover, the victorious candidate for Comptroller (in this case Guerin) would be considered the next most likely County Executive after Mike Hein. 

Time will tell if the Republicans take advantage of this opportunity or squander it with a political deal.

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Rumors have started surfacing regarding Terry Bernardo and her legislative seat.  Most are untrue.  Allow me to explain.

First, the rumor that Terry Bernardo has resigned is patently false.  She continues to serve as County Legislator and Chair of the Legislature.

Second, the rumor that Troy Dunn is planning to run against Terry Bernardo is also false.  My understanding is that Mr. Dunn (a very strong candidate in his own right) is considering a run for the seat in 2015 if Terry Bernardo chooses not to run.  There is not going to be a Republican Primary between those two.

Third, no Democratic candidate has announced his or her candidacy.  The only candidate who has announced for the seat is the enrolled Republican who challenged Legislator Bernardo in the 2011 Republican Primary and the 2009 and 2011 General Elections.  Considering that Terry Bernardo won the 2011 primary with 71.8% of the vote (268-105) and the 2011 General Election with 76.4% of the vote (943-292), it is unlikely that Terry Bernardo will lose to this candidate.  {The 2009 general election is not a fair comparison of the vote as this was during the time of multi-member districts.  The count though was 3605 to 1719}

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As more political rumblings start to surface, I will address them.  These are the only ones of note right now.  To be fair, it is VERY early in the political year , but I will keep my ear to the ground.

A Win Against the Nanny State

I was very pleased that Manhattan Supreme Court Judge Milton Tingling tossed out the soda ban passed by the New York City Health Department.  It is about time someone put the brakes on out of control government.

Tingling wrote in his opinion that the rules are "arbitrary and capricious," applying to only certain beverages and only certain stores.  "The loopholes in this rule effectively defeat the stated purpose of this rule," he wrote, complaining of "uneven enforcement even within a particular City block, much less the City as a whole." 

Basically, using constitutional language, the Judge found that there was no rational basis for this legislation.  He also ruled that such legislation should be considered by the City Council and not a Board made up of people handpicked by Mayor Bloomberg.

Bloomberg has of course announced that the City will appeal claiming the decision was "clearly an error".  Since Mr. Bloomberg is not an attorney, he has little basis for his comment.  Truth be told, he is used to getting his way and is angry that the Constitution got in his way.  When you are worth $27 billion dollars, you usually get your own way.

Regardless, I am thrilled that overly intrusive government was dealt a set back.  I hope the Appellate Division affirms the decision.  One way or the other, the ruling of Judge Tingling is a victory for freedom and a strong stand against dictatorial government seeking to trample the Constitution.

Too Little Too Late

It seems that Senator Skelos now wants to make substantial amendments to the SAFE Act.  Keep in mind that he voted in favor of this bad piece of legislation.  Further keep in mind that as Majority Leader, he could have stopped the legislation from ever going to the floor for a vote. He did not have the guts to stand up to Cuomo.

Now, he is posturing on his position because his position as majority leader is in jeopardy.  It is too little and too late.

Comptroller Candidates in 2013

Thus far, no names have surfaced for Comptroller to challenge a VERY vulnerable incumbent. 

I would like to hear from you who you think should challenge for the seat.  Do not just give a name.  Offer a name and some reasons why he or she would be a good candidate and why he or she would win.

Senor vs Hoffay

The Daily Freeman has an article today wherein Aldermen Senor and Hoffay attempt a battle of wits despite both being unarmed.

The name calling contest sounded like two children at elementary school recess trying to come up with the best "Your Mother" jokes.

I hope this election season results in better candidates.  The people of Kingston deserve so much better than these two clucking hens.